This is the beginning of the planning chain. The goal is to transform demand into a producible need. If this step is skipped, planning becomes limited to reacting to incoming orders, and capacity consistently lags behind.
Scope
Demand forecasting: Generating statistical forecasts from historical sales data, taking seasonality and trends into account; adding the effects of campaigns and special periods.
Combining forecasts with orders: The rule is that actual orders must be consumed by the forecast. Otherwise, the same demand will be planned twice, and inventory will swell.
Sales and operations planning: Sales, production, supply, and finance are brought together in a single plan through monthly meetings. Volume, capacity, and inventory balances are established at the product group level.
Scenario assessment: Testing the impact of scenarios involving increased demand, capacity constraints, or supply chain issues on the plan.
Capacity pre-check: Early assessment of whether the planned volume can be roughly met at critical resources.
Stock policy: Determining the level of safety stock to be maintained for each product, based on service level targets.
Measuring forecast accuracy: Comparing the forecast with the actual result and improving the quality of the forecast over time.
A common scenario in Türkiye.
In many businesses, sales forecasts are either not made at all or are made but never used. Production is planned according to incoming orders; if the material lead time is longer than the order lead time, either the risk of excess inventory is taken or the customer is given a longer delivery date.
The sales and operations planning cycle breaks this vicious cycle. It doesn't require an advanced forecasting model; a regular meeting rhythm, a shared data source, and a record of decisions are sufficient. The most valuable outcome of the meeting isn't the forecast itself, but the fact that sales and production are looking at the same number.
Benefit to the customer
Long lead times for supplies are ordered on time.
Capacity requirements are determined months in advance.
Inventory is formed based on policy, not reactively.